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July 07, 2003
Tips to Fix the Summer Blockbuster Season
Maybe Andy Warhol was misquoted. Maybe he really said, ‘In the future every movie will be famous for one weekend.’ Or, if he were to be more specific, ‘In the future, every movie will be famous until the first weekend receipts are tallied.’
We’re in an age where a $50 million dollar opening-weekend is a benchmark of success not only for the movie industry, but for the general public as well. Water cooler discussions are filled with discussions of per-screen grosses. As such, the profit-driven mentality of the industry has crept into everyday discourse. As such, if a movie fails to generate ‘enough’ money in its opening weekend, the movie is deader than Jason Voorhees . OK, bad example.
Still, it’s a vicious cycle. The industry has increasingly stressed the importance of a movie’s first few days, and, as a result, the movie-going public has paid a more concentrated attention over less time to these films. Decreasing this importance is vital to ensuring the fiscal success of any future blockbuster season. While the Blockbuster Juggernaut may not be able to capitalize on the following suggestions in time to salvage upcoming releases, here are a few hints for the movie industry’s 2004 Summer Season.
1) Convince the public to lower its expectations. Any industry that can hype a Paul Walker/Tyrese film to a $50 million opening weekend can likewise downplay the significance of early box-office takes. Take a lesson from this month’s Tour de France. Lance Armstrong’s seventh-place finish in the first day’s leg is no cause for overall concern. He’s in it for the long haul; so should movies. It’s becoming nearly impossible to find that perfect movie that gets both enormous first-weekend receipts along with overall strong fiscal performance. Projecting a movie’s overall stability after 72 hours needs to be shed so films stand a fighting chance to stay in the theatres longer than a month.
Industry leaders should take a page from the slow roll-out releases afforded to its independent and Oscar-contender films. Let the audiences find the films on their own; films as ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding’ and ‘Bend it Like Beckham’ became popular and profitable due to a combination of word-of-mouth and a gradual increase in screens over a number of weeks. And let’s not forget a little picture that rolled Miramax into the red and onto Oscar’s red carpet: ‘Chicago’. The summer season now lasts roughly 16 weeks; use them wisely.
2) Don’t make the trailer better than the movie. In my unscientific poll, only eight people in America were looking forward to ‘Hulk’ for its laborious psychodrama. The other 50 million said, ‘I wanna see The Hulk smash stuff good.’ Well, they got their wish…in the form of the trailer. Playing more as a ‘Greatest Hits’ package than a teaser of clips meant to entice unsure patrons, the trailer gave the casual viewer all the visceral elements that would make them fork over their hard-earned money in the first place. Couple this trend with the tendency to give away the entire plot and one can see how trailers have done more damage to box-office receipts that having the name ‘Justin Guarini’ affixed to it. Give us a sense of scope, show us who’s in it, give us a few explosions to whet our whistles. But it’s a simple law of supply and demand: supply us just enough that we demand more.
3) Make sure the phrase ‘A Pixar Animations Studios Film’ appears somewhere in the credits. This past weekend, ‘Finding Nemo’ reached the $275 million mark. It’s the highest grossing movie this summer and sits as the 17th-highest grossing movie ever. Pixar’s last release, ‘Monsters Inc.’, did a paltry $255 million at the box office. By contrast, ‘Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas’ will be lucky to recover Dreamworks’ $60 million investment. That’s right: Albert Brooks is whipping Brad Pitt at the box office.
Or, more accurately, Pixar is whipping Brad, along with almost everyone else. Is Pixar ahead of the animation curve? Undoubtedly. But more importantly, Pixar above all tells stories with visual augmentation as a secondary concern. Audiences are no longer impressed by wire-fu acrobatics taking up space where character development could occur. To paraphrase a former President, ‘It’s the story, stupid.’ Pixar would do its coffers well by hiring out its services as a story-consulting group. They have their finger on storytelling in a way that no other major studio does.
OK, we’ve got a studio as a benchmark, now we need an actor to serve that purpose. But who?
4) Put Reese Witherspoon in your Pixar-aided endeavor. Yes, she lost to the potential future governor of California this past weekend, but Ahnold may need to use some fuzzy math in his future legislation to help ‘Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines’ recoup its $175 million budget. By contrast, Witherspoon boasts a recent string of moderately-budgeted films which are enormously profitable. The original ‘Legally Blonde’ grossed nearly $100 million versus an $18 million dollar budget. The sequel has already on track to match the original’s numbers. Using a formula in which money is spent on talent, not effects, can work both ways (see the grosses of any post-’XXX’ Vin Diesel film…heck, look at ‘XXX’). In certain cases, however, it will yield the kind of profit margins that the typical $100+ million action film often cannot muster. I know it pains you to hear this, Movie Industry, but really: sometimes less is more. And while we’re on the topic of actors’
5) Put actors in roles in which people are comfortable to see them. I also call this ‘The Fedora Theorem’. It’s a basic mathematical equation that you will all do well in memorizing. It goes as follows: ‘Harrison Ford - (Fedora + Bullwhip) = Box Office Disaster’. It doesn’t take the intellect of John Nash to arrive at this conclusion.
Jim Carrey’s role in ‘Bruce Almighty’ has been hailed as a ‘comeback’, but really, I’d call it ‘perfect timing’. While some may not like his foray into more dramatic roles, even his ardent fans would agree that during the summer months, Jim is better served by playing Bruce Nolan than Andy Kaufman. Both roles present different, equally successful ventures. People come in droves to see Carrey in broad comedy; they come in black turtlenecks to see him channel one of the 20th century’s most misunderstood artists. Two audiences, equally appreciative, separated by seasons.
‘Hollywood Homicide’ might not have been such a box-office dud if it had been released in the Fall, when less competition (and less expectation) could have garnered the movie more attention, and, by extension, more money. When the weather is warm, people don’t want to see Mr. Flockhart play a Los Angeles cop, a Russian sub commander, or, like he did in ‘Sabrina’, a man name…Linus.
Bottom line: If you plan on releasing a Harrison Ford movie between Memorial Day and Labor Day, he’d better be piloting the Millennium Falcon.
Posted by Ryan McGee at July 7, 2003 10:13 AM
Comments
I hope ARNULLD will do better for governorship than his 43 millon dollar first weekend. T3 didn't make the cut of blockbustership and it looks like it is going to be an uphill battle to recoup the 175 millon dollar price tag for this movie.
Posted by: Marc at July 7, 2003 10:43 AM
#2 has been one of my long standing pet peeves with the movie industry. It not only annoys me that the trailers mostly include the best bits or lines from a movie, I REALLY hate it when the trailer has scenes that aren't even in the actual film.
Posted by: A.J. at July 7, 2003 10:51 AM
I've only ever rooted for one movie NOT to make it's initial investment, and that was the blight on Western Civilization known as "Batman and Robin." And following it's box office swan dive with a righteous thirst for revenge, I found out that, as much as we obsess about the Almighty Box Office, it's almost impossible for a crap Big Movie not to make it's money back. You've got the domestic box office, sure. But then there's international. And then there's the video rental market. And then there's the video retail/DVD market. And that's not counting PPV. And that's not counting broadcast revenue for when it hits HBO. And that's not counting more revenue for when ABC airs it in place of "Who Wants to Be George Lopez According to Jim Dating My Daughter?" And that's not counting when TNT says, "Screw it" and airs nothing but the movie for a 48 hour period.
"Batman and Robin" fell $20 million short of recouping their investment domestically. WB still made all of their money back about 5 times over and counting. Ahnold will be fine.
Also, I know I was looking for slow-paced docudrama out of the Hulk, but who were the other seven?
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 10:55 AM
This is probably also a good time to point out that despite it's rampant popularity and Oscars galore,"Shakespeare in Love" made considerably less than $50 million for its entire theatrical run.
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 10:58 AM
AJ, it's known as "The Flying Cow from 'Twister'" Theory.
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 11:06 AM
Ryan, are you referencing the cow meaning it was a "best part" that was given away or a missing movie scene? I could've sworn that I saw it in the movie...
by the way- how was everyone's 4th?
Posted by: Heather at July 7, 2003 11:20 AM
They may have added it in the "Super Bovine" DVD edition, but in the theatres, nary a flying cow to be seen.
Where's Susan when you need her? :)
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 11:23 AM
Thanks for asking Heather! I hope you had a nice 4th yourself.
One of the highlights of the weekend was watching the Yankees get crushed by the Red Sox on Friday. I happened to be sitting in a Red Sox section of the stadium, so I managed to avoid bodily harm AND heckle a few people. Good times. I almost called you Ryan, but I thought it would be cruel to rub in that I was at the game and you weren't.
Ah, movies. Glad the public seems to be getting hip to the ploys the industry exploits to up their returns.
Go see Capturing the Friedmans if you want to catch a great documentary that actually deserves your hard-earned cash...
I ramble, don't I?
Posted by: Megan at July 7, 2003 12:05 PM
Holy coincidence! I was at the same game, Megan. Nothing prevented me from calling Ryan and taunting him, though. There's nothing like being in the House That Evil Built when the home team is down by 7 runs and a chant of "Let's Go, Red Sox" is taken up by the crowd. It's the exact opposite feeling of the last time I was in Fenway, when Pedro was lifted in the seventh inning and wild cheering pandemonium erupted from the Yankee fans throning the lyric little bandbox.
Also, no matter who's playing, it doesn't get much better than baseball on the 4th of July.
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 12:22 PM
ryan, I'm surprised at the number of trailers that do that now. atm I can only think of that piece of crap sci-fi flick Highlander: Endgame which had at least three scenes nowhere to be found in the film.
But even little things like Denzel's quote from Training Day "King Kong ain't got nothing on me" ticked me off because the verbal rhythm of what he actually said in the film seemed significant.
Posted by: A.J. at July 7, 2003 12:51 PM
And that part in the trailer for "Stuart Little" where Darth Vader suddenly appeared and said, "Luke...I am your father" was totally misleading.
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 01:22 PM
That's great Tim! I wish we would have connected.
Yelling "Let's Go Red Sox" at Yankee Stadium and not getting pelted with edibles was a magical moment.
It's ow-ah yee-ah.
Posted by: Megan at July 7, 2003 01:43 PM
I didn't wear any Sox paraphenilia, which was too bad, because I was up in the third deck and I forgot that I never have any problems in the third deck. It's when I was in the bleachers that I had a bit of trouble. Still, with my semi-unruly beard, jeans and torn army green T-shirt, I was dressed to intimidate, and no one bother me when I loudly bellowed during Nomar's first at bat.
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 02:11 PM
Of course no one bugged you. You're Commander "Pecs" Foley of the 15th Unruly Brigade.
Strength and honor.
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 02:14 PM
Now that you mention it, there were two rumblings among my section of the crowd. One concerned the sexual orientation of the five field maintanence men who came out during the sixth inning and danced to YMCA. The other was "Did you see the pecs on the unshaven Army guy?! Let's go Ya...SOX"
Posted by: Megan at July 7, 2003 02:48 PM
Tim's pecs are the true weapons of mass destruction...of women's hearts, that is!
God, he's gonna kill me. Oh well.
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 03:23 PM
I find it funny that with all of the hype I've only been to see two movies this summer: X2 and Finding Nemo. I think that the theater atmosphere has been preventing me from going as much as the annoyance about the pre-buzz. I wish that some people would realize that I didn't pay 10 bucks to listen to their cell phone conversations or to hear them ask their friends stupid questions because they don't get the plot. My husband told me that two (count 'em, two) fights nearly broke out -- involving physical contact -- when he went to go see Hulk on opening day. Afterwards he called the film "uneven." So not worth it when I can get a rental and a cheap bottle of wine for the same price.
So can anyone let me in on a film (or other entertainment - Yankee/Red Sox games don't count. Apparently I've succumbed to the dark side since I was five.) that's value for money?
Posted by: Diana at July 7, 2003 03:32 PM
Diana, totally go see Capturing the Friedmans. It's a documentary, and a disturbing one at that, but it's brilliant. I know it's open in NYC...keep your eyes out for it. Amazing. Sparked an hour-long debate afterwards.
Posted by: Megan at July 7, 2003 03:42 PM
It's pretty clear that for all of the hype, most of the summer blockbusters are going to be flawed at best. Many of them are in outright impossible situations: "The Matrix Reloaded" would have to be astounding to surpass the original, and the "Hulk," let's face it, is a summer action blockbuster directed by Ang Lee... two things that just really don't go together (for all the drooling that happens concerning "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," I found it to be pretty uneven as well.) Sequels are in the "Have to be different and yet the same as the original" bind. And I completely forgot that "Hollywood Homicide" even happened.
And it's not so much that they don't make 'em like they used to, it's that summer movies are always uneven.
Of the movies that everyone I know who's seen them has raved about 'em, "Bend It Like Beckham" is still out (that's kinda impressive, really), "Capturing the Friedmans" is getting accolades up the wazoo and there's a place in North Bergen that's still showing "From Justin to Kelly" (Kidding! I'm kidding!) Other than that, it depends whether a whole movie experience (and subsequent cost) can be justified by, say, "The Treasure Chest" scene in Charlie's Angels, or whether the dozen completely brilliant scenes in "The Hulk" is worth the half a dozen scenes where you're thinking "Ang, what's the point of this story?"
Basically, there are no "Gladiator"s this year so far.
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 03:50 PM
Also, McGee, I could kill you with a thought.
Posted by: Commander Foley at July 7, 2003 03:57 PM
My pick for the "Gladiator" of this year, and it's "X2: X-Men United", even with that completely stupid title.
It's as close as it gets since it gives me the action, gives me a good story, gives me some humor, and gives me some emotion. I don't get that "Crap, I really wish I were as cool as Maximus" from Wolverine, but I still dug it. I've seen it four times now. Never bothered to see anything else more than once, though I could be dragged to "Nemo" again fairly easily.
And yes, the Treasure Chest scene is easily the GREATEST SCENE IN THE HISTORY OF CINEMA but that's why DVDs were invented: to get to the Darth Maul light-saber fight in "Episode 1" immediately and to watch a strip-tease to the Pink Panther theme. It's that simple.
Posted by: ryan at July 7, 2003 04:04 PM
Hey, did someone mention a flying cow?
Posted by: Susan at July 7, 2003 07:07 PM